英文标题：
《A Simple Measure of Economic Complexity》
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作者：
Sabiou Inoua
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最新提交年份：
2021
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英文摘要：
  The conventional view on economic development simplifies a country\'s production to one aggregate variable, GDP. Yet product diversification matters for economic development, as recent, data-driven, \"economic complexity\" research suggests. A country\'s product diversity reflects the country\'s diversity of productive knowhow, or \"capabilities\". Researchers derive from algorithms (inspired by network theory) metrics that measure the number of capabilities in an economy, notably the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), argued to predict economic growth better than traditional variables such as human capital, and the country Fitness index. This paper offers an alternative economic complexity measure (founded on information theory) that derives from a simple model of production as a combinatorial process whereby a set of capabilities combine with some probability to transform raw materials into a product. A country\'s number of capabilities is given by the logarithm of its product diversity, as predicts the model, which also predicts a linear dependence between log-diversity, ECI, and log-fitness. The model\'s predictions fit the empirical data well; its informational interpretation, we argue, is a natural theoretical framework for the complex view on economic development.
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中文摘要：
传统的经济发展观将一个国家的生产简化为一个总变量，即GDP。然而，正如最近数据驱动的“经济复杂性”研究所表明的那样，产品多样化对经济发展至关重要。一个国家的产品多样性反映了该国生产技术或“能力”的多样性。研究人员从（受网络理论启发的）算法中得出衡量一个经济体能力数量的指标，尤其是经济复杂性指数（ECI），该指标被认为比人力资本和国家适应度指数等传统变量更好地预测经济增长。本文提供了另一种经济复杂性度量方法（基于信息论），它源于一个简单的生产模型，作为一个组合过程，其中一组能力与将原材料转化为产品的概率相结合。正如模型预测的那样，一个国家的能力数量由其产品多样性的对数给出，该模型还预测了对数多样性、ECI和对数适合度之间的线性依赖关系。模型的预测与经验数据吻合良好；我们认为，它的信息解释是复杂的经济发展观的自然理论框架。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance        统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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