英文标题：
《Switching Economics for Physics and the Carbon Price Inflation: Problems
  in Integrated Assessment Models and their Implications》
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作者：
Sgouris Sgouridis, Abdulla Kaya, Denes Csala
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
  Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are mainstay tools for assessing the long-term interactions between climate and the economy and for deriving optimal policy responses in the form of carbon prices. IAMs have been criticized for controversial discount rate assumptions, arbitrary climate damage functions, and the inadequate handling of potentially catastrophic climate outcomes. We review these external shortcomings for prominent IAMs before turning our focus on an internal modeling fallacy: the widespread misapplication of the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) function for the technology transitions modeled by IAMs. Applying CES, an economic modeling approach, on technical factor inputs over long periods where an entire factor (the greenhouse gas emitting fossil fuel inputs) must be substituted creates artifacts that fail to match the S-curve patterns observed historically. A policy critical result, the monotonically increasing cost of carbon, a universal feature of IAMs, is called into question by showing that it is unrealistic as it is an artifact of the modeling approach and not representative of the technical substitutability potential nor of the expected cost of the technologies. We demonstrate this first through a simple but representative example of CES application on the energy system and with a sectoral discussion of the actual fossil substitution costs. We propose a methodological modification using dynamically varying elasticity of substitution as a plausible alternative to model the energy transition in line with the historical observations and technical realities within the existing modeling systems. Nevertheless, a fundamentally different approach based on physical energy principles would be more appropriate.
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中文摘要：
综合评估模型（IAMs）是评估气候和经济之间长期相互作用以及以碳价格形式得出最佳政策反应的主要工具。IAMs因有争议的贴现率假设、任意的气候破坏函数以及对潜在灾难性气候后果处理不当而受到批评。在我们将注意力转向内部建模谬误之前，我们回顾了突出IAMs的这些外部缺陷：在IAMs建模的技术转换中，普遍错误地使用了恒定替代弹性（CES）函数。将CES（一种经济建模方法）应用于长期的技术因素输入，其中必须替换整个因素（排放温室气体的化石燃料输入），会产生与历史上观察到的S曲线模式不匹配的伪影。一个政策关键性的结果是，碳的成本单调增加，这是IAMs的一个普遍特征，通过表明这是不现实的，因为它是建模方法的产物，不代表技术的可替代性潜力，也不代表技术的预期成本，因此受到质疑。我们首先通过一个简单但具有代表性的CES应用于能源系统的例子，以及对实际化石替代成本的部门性讨论来证明这一点。我们提出了一种方法上的修改，使用动态变化的替代弹性作为一种可行的替代方案，根据现有建模系统中的历史观察和技术现实，对能量转换进行建模。然而，基于物理能量原理的根本不同的方法更合适。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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