英文标题：
《Stealed-bid Auctions: Detecting Bid Leakage via Semi-Supervised Learning》
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作者：
Dmitry I. Ivanov and Alexander S. Nesterov
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最新提交年份：
2020
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英文摘要：
  Bid leakage is a corrupt scheme in a first-price sealed-bid auction in which the procurer leaks the opponents\' bids to a favoured participant. The rational behaviour of such participant is to bid close to the deadline in order to receive all bids, which allows him to ensure his win at the best price possible. While such behaviour does leave detectable traces in the data, the absence of bid leakage labels makes supervised classification impossible. Instead, we reduce the problem of the bid leakage detection to a positive-unlabeled classification. The key idea is to regard the losing participants as fair and the winners as possibly corrupted. This allows us to estimate the prior probability of bid leakage in the sample, as well as the posterior probability of bid leakage for each specific auction.   We extract and analyze the data on 600,000 Russian procurement auctions between 2014 and 2018. We find that around 9% of the auctions are exposed to bid leakage, which results in an overall 1.5% price increase. The predicted probability of bid leakage is higher for auctions with a higher reserve price, with too low or too high number of participants, and if the winner has met the auctioneer in earlier auctions.
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中文摘要：
在第一次价格密封投标拍卖中，出价泄露是一种腐败的方案，在这种拍卖中，购电方将对手的出价泄露给受青睐的参与者。这种参与者的理性行为是在接近截止日期的时候出价，以便收到所有出价，这使他能够确保以尽可能最好的价格获胜。虽然这种行为确实会在数据中留下可检测的痕迹，但由于没有投标泄漏标签，无法进行监督分类。相反，我们将投标泄漏检测问题简化为正的未标记分类。关键的想法是，把输家视为公平的，把赢家视为腐败的。这使我们能够估计样本中出价泄露的先验概率，以及每个特定拍卖的出价泄露的后验概率。我们提取并分析了2014年至2018年间60万次俄罗斯采购拍卖的数据。我们发现，大约9%的拍卖会面临投标泄露，这导致整体价格上涨1.5%。对于底价较高、参与者人数过低或过高、且获胜者在早期拍卖中见过拍卖师的拍卖，预测的投标泄漏概率较高。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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