1)要做一个arch模型,adf检验 prob <0.0000。
2)然后看自相关图,显示如下;
3)根据自相关图,建立模型
LS R1 C AR(11) AR(14) AR(17) AR(18) AR(22) AR(29) AR(33) AR(34)
结果如下:
Dependent Variable: R1 | | |
Method: Least Squares | | |
Date: 09/10/12 Time: 03:53 | | |
Sample (adjusted): 2/23/2007 12/30/2011 | |
| Included observations: 1239 after adjustments |
Convergence achieved after 3 iterations
|
|
Variable
| Coefficient
| Std. Error
| t-Statistic
| Prob.
|
C | -0.001090 | 0.000921 | -1.183921 | 0.2367 |
AR(11) | 0.085662 | 0.028107 | 3.047695 | 0.0024 |
AR(14) | -0.057957 | 0.027961 | -2.072782 | 0.0384 |
AR(17) | 0.103783 | 0.027947 | 3.713601 | 0.0002 |
AR(18) | -0.080974 | 0.027934 | -2.898749 | 0.0038 |
AR(22) | -0.074590 | 0.028146 | -2.650073 | 0.0082 |
AR(29) | 0.081863 | 0.028100 | 2.913293 | 0.0036 |
AR(33) | -0.073637 | 0.028114 | -2.619202 | 0.0089 |
AR(34)
| -0.073517
| 0.028168
| -2.609944
| 0.0092
|
R-squared | 0.051019 | Mean dependent var | -0.001122 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.044847 | S.D. dependent var | 0.036130 |
S.E. of regression | 0.035311 | Akaike info criterion | -3.842006 |
Sum squared resid | 1.533647 | Schwarz criterion | -3.804800 |
Log likelihood | 2389.123 | Hannan-Quinn criter. | -3.828013 |
F-statistic | 8.265945 | Durbin-Watson stat | 2.009378 |
Prob(F-statistic)
| 0.000000
|
|
|
|
Inverted AR Roots | .93+.09i | .93-.09i | .90+.24i | .90-.24i |
| .86-.42i | .86+.42i | .76-.59i | .76+.59i |
| .63-.70i | .63+.70i | .47-.82i | .47+.82i |
| .32-.88i | .32+.88i | .14-.88i | .14+.88i |
| .00+.95i | .00-.95i | -.20-.91i | -.20+.91i |
| -.34-.87i | -.34+.87i | -.54-.78i | -.54+.78i |
| -.66+.66i | -.66-.66i | -.75-.37i | -.75+.37i |
| -.77-.48i | -.77+.48i | -.84+.24i | -.84-.24i |
| -.93+.14i
| -.93-.14i
|
|
|
问题:进行残差的序列相关检验时,几乎所有的P值都小于0.05,代表残差存在序列相关现象
请问这种情况该怎么继续做?