【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月英国金属与矿产行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：54
        【目录或简介】：
Jumping at shadows
Rob Clifford
Research Analyst
(+44) 20 754-58339
robert.clifford@db.com
Grant Sporre
Research Analyst
(+44) 207 545-8170
grant.sporre@db.com
Data remains robust
With concerns about demand slowing with the Chinese new year celebrations, the
markets responded negatively to the Chinese Government rhetoric to slow loan
growth. The data however showed that concerns were misplaced; loan growth in
China was indeed strong and jumped again to 1.4TRmb (up 3.7x on Dec), Chinese
electricity production continues to run at highs and OECD indicators continue to
track positively. Feb figures will no doubt be affected by the week-long new year
celebrations in China - but the markets now seem to be taking it in their stride.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
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Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
Xstrata (XTA.L),GBP1,031.50 Buy
ENRC PLC (ENRC.L),GBP909.00 Buy
Nyrstar NV (NYR.BR),EUR10.08 Buy
Aquarius Platinum Limited (AQP.L),GBP372.90 Buy
Companies featured
Anglo American (AAL.L),GBP2,322.00 Buy
Antofagasta PLC (ANTO.L),GBP879.00 Sell
BHP Billiton Plc (BLT.L),GBP1,866.00 Hold
Boliden AB (BOL.ST),SEK99.85 Sell
ENRC PLC (ENRC.L),GBP909.00 Buy
Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO.L),GBP204.70 Hold
Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ.L),GBP1,219.00 Hold
Lonmin Plc (LMI.L),GBP1,807.00 Hold
Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL),NOK43.50 Hold
Nyrstar NV (NYR.BR),EUR10.08 Buy
Rio Tinto (RIO.L),GBP3,099.00 Buy
Vedanta Resources (VED.L),GBP2,427.00 Hold
Xstrata (XTA.L),GBP1,031.50 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
All eyes on the iron ore negotiations
With the end of the Japanese fiscal year approaching, market noise around iron
ore pricing has been increasing significantly. The facts are; iron ore spot pricing is
US$130/t (CIF China), this represents a 90% premium to the Brazilian Itabira fines
and a 100% premium to the Pilbara blend fines contract prices. For the main
buyers, Chinese steel production in Jan was running at an annualised rate of
573Mtpa (up 2% on Dec and 18% yoy), Japan was running at 103Mtpa (down 3%
on Dec and up 37% yoy…but 19% below its peak in June ’08) and the EU was
running at 157Mtpa (up 12% on Dec, up 37% yoy and 29% below its peak in Mar
’07). HRC prices for the US, Japan and China were +6%, 0% and -3% mom
respectively – importantly the three prices are -45%, -45% and -35% from their
peaks in mid 2008. While iron ore producers may be asking for prices higher than
the 2008 levels, steel mills are asking how they are going to pay for…Early
requests for steel price increases have met with stiff opposition.
Coal continuing to firm.
While steel mills are eyeing the iron ore markets nervously, the coking coal
markets are potentially providing an even bigger headache. Spot hard coking coal
prices are running at US$225/t (74% over the benchmark). The spot coking coal
market is very thin and prices should be treated with care – however both BHP
Billiton and Xstrata confirmed with their financial reports that they were receiving
North of US$220/t on reasonable contract tonnage. Meanwhile, spot thermal coal
prices continue to remain above contract levels with ex Richard’s bay coal at
US$84/t and ex Newcastle at US$92.. The difference reflects the tighter demand
in the Pacific markets vs the Atlantic.
Currencies steady
Most currencies remained stable relative to the USD over the last month which
prevented the pull back being worse than it was in our view. The euro was one of
the bigger movers, weakening 4% vs the USD, which should help some of the
European commodity producers.