第一,该数据序列太短,用作单位根检验是不够合理的
第二,检验出来的数据的对数不是一阶单整
Null Hypothesis: D(LNPE) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.827439 0.2238
Test critical values: 1% level -5.295384
5% level -4.008157
10% level -3.460791
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNPE,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/28/10 Time: 12:17
Sample (adjusted): 5 14
Included observations: 10 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LNPE(-1)) -2.055392 0.726945 -2.827439 0.0368
D(LNPE(-1),2) 1.024570 0.545084 1.879656 0.1189
D(LNPE(-2),2) 0.528025 0.428127 1.233337 0.2723
C 0.041306 0.046082 0.896343 0.4111
@TREND(1) 0.007989 0.006157 1.297520 0.2511
R-squared 0.702656 Mean dependent var 0.010497
Adjusted R-squared 0.464781 S.D. dependent var 0.058325
S.E. of regression 0.042670 Akaike info criterion -3.163782
Sum squared resid 0.009104 Schwarz criterion -3.012489
Log likelihood 20.81891 F-statistic 2.953886
Durbin-Watson stat 2.772795 Prob(F-statistic) 0.132901
Null Hypothesis: D(LNUR) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=2)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.260700 0.4179
Test critical values: 1% level -5.124875
5% level -3.933364
10% level -3.420030
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 11
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(LNUR,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/28/10 Time: 12:19
Sample (adjusted): 4 14
Included observations: 11 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LNUR(-1)) -0.961298 0.425221 -2.260700 0.0583
D(LNUR(-1),2) 0.551415 0.371517 1.484227 0.1813
C 0.003779 0.041162 0.091816 0.9294
@TREND(1) 0.005183 0.005911 0.876854 0.4096
R-squared 0.441836 Mean dependent var -0.000136
Adjusted R-squared 0.202623 S.D. dependent var 0.054444
S.E. of regression 0.048616 Akaike info criterion -2.934425
Sum squared resid 0.016545 Schwarz criterion -2.789736
Log likelihood 20.13934 F-statistic 1.847038
Durbin-Watson stat 2.077278 Prob(F-statistic) 0.226716