摘要翻译：
维柯丁是美国最常见的止痛药。研究表明，目前有200万人滥用维柯丁，大多数滥用维柯丁的人最初是通过处方接触的。我们的目标是确定减少维柯丁滥用者总数的最有效策略。更具体地说，我们侧重于旨在教育医生和病人滥用药物的可能性的预防方法或滥用维柯丁后实施的治疗方法是否会产生更大的整体影响。我们考虑了一个线性和两个非线性的区域模型，其中维柯丁的医疗使用者可以转移到滥用者区域或通过不再服药离开人群。一旦维柯丁滥用者，人们可以过渡到治疗区，有可能通过成功完成治疗而离开人群，也有可能复发并再次进入滥用区。线性模型假设没有社会互动，而两个非线性模型都考虑了互动。一个考虑与滥用者的相互作用影响复吸率，而另一个假设这两者以及滥用者数量和新处方数量之间的额外相互作用。敏感度分析通过参数测量这些干预方法的成功率，以确定哪种策略对控制维柯丁滥用人群的影响最大。从这些模型和分析中，我们确定，操纵与预防措施相关的参数比操纵与治疗相关的参数对减少滥用者人口有更大的影响。我们还注意到，增加滥用者寻求治疗的比率对滥用者人口的影响大于治疗的成功率本身。
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英文标题：
《Substance Abuse via Legally Prescribed Drugs: The Case of Vicodin in the
  United States》
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作者：
Wendy K. Caldwell, Benjamin Freedman, Luke Settles, Michael M. Thomas,
  Anarina Murillo, Erika Camacho, Stephen Wirkus
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
  Vicodin is the most commonly prescribed pain reliever in the United States. Research indicates that there are two million people who are currently abusing Vicodin, and the majority of those who abuse Vicodin were initially exposed to it via prescription. Our goal is to determine the most effective strategies for reducing the overall population of Vicodin abusers. More specifically, we focus on whether prevention methods aimed at educating doctors and patients on the potential for drug abuse or treatment methods implemented after a person abuses Vicodin will have a greater overall impact. We consider one linear and two non-linear compartmental models in which medical users of Vicodin can transition into the abuser compartment or leave the population by no longer taking the drug. Once Vicodin abusers, people can transition into a treatment compartment, with the possibility of leaving the population through successful completion of treatment or of relapsing and re-entering the abusive compartment. The linear model assumes no social interaction, while both non-linear models consider interaction. One considers interaction with abusers affecting the relapse rate, while the other assumes both this and an additional interaction between the number of abusers and the number of new prescriptions. Sensitivity analyses are conducted varying the rates of success of these intervention methods measured by the parameters to determine which strategy has the greatest impact on controlling the population of Vicodin abusers. From these models and analyses, we determine that manipulating parameters tied to prevention measures has a greater impact on reducing the population of abusers than manipulating parameters associated with treatment. We also note that increasing the rate at which abusers seek treatment affects the population of abusers more than the success rate of treatment itself.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1308.3673