英文标题：
《Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure
  Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases》
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作者：
Chantal C. Cantarelli, Eric J. E. Molin, Bert van Wee, and Bent
  Flyvbjerg
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
  Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transport infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because cost overruns are larger than cost underruns projects on average have a cost overrun of 16.5%. The focus on one country further enabled to consider cost overruns during different project development phases. It turned out that in the Netherlands the majority of the cost overrun occurs in the pre-construction phase (the period between the formal decision to build and the start of construction). The frequency as well as the magnitude of pre-construction cost overrun is significantly higher than in the construction phase. The used methodology of calculating cost overruns does however not take lock-in into account. This phenomenon shows that the real decision to build was taken much earlier in the decision-making process. Since estimated costs are usually lower during these earlier stages, the cost overruns based on this real decision to build are likely to be much higher. Cost overruns presented in studies are therefore often underestimated and the problem of cost overruns is much larger than we think.
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中文摘要：
采用与全球研究中使用的方法类似的方法，确定荷兰大型交通基础设施项目的成本效益。在荷兰，成本超支与成本超支一样常见，但由于成本超支大于成本超支，项目平均成本超支为16.5%。对一个国家的关注进一步使我们能够在不同的项目开发阶段考虑成本超支。事实证明，在荷兰，大部分成本超支发生在施工前阶段（从正式决定施工到开始施工之间）。施工前成本超支的频率和幅度明显高于施工阶段。然而，计算成本超支所使用的方法没有考虑锁定。这一现象表明，真正的建造决策是在决策过程中更早做出的。由于这些早期阶段的估计成本通常较低，因此基于实际建造决策的成本超支可能会高得多。因此，研究中提出的成本超支经常被低估，成本超支的问题比我们想象的要严重得多。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance        一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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