目 录
一、行业关键驱动因素.....................................................................................................................................................1
二、利用率企稳回升 景气周期上行................................................................................................................................2
（一）需求持续快速增长...................................................................................................................................................2
（二）产能供给增速放缓...................................................................................................................................................5
（三）利用率企稳回升.......................................................................................................................................................8
三、盈利能力保持稳定...................................................................................................................................................11
（一）火电：“煤电联动”+产业升级................................................................................................................................11
（二）水电：气候因素是关键.........................................................................................................................................15
（三）核电：政策保障，盈利稳定.................................................................................................................................16
四、市场份额向重点公司集中........................................................................................................................................17
（一）重点公司掌握优质电源点.....................................................................................................................................17
（二）行业整合推动市场份额向重点公司集中..............................................................................................................17
（三）资产注入使重点上市公司获得外延式增长机会..................................................................................................18
五、内生性增长价值已被反映，外延式增长价值可获溢价.........................................................................................20
（一）内生性增长价值已被股价反映..............................................................................................................................20
（二）外延式增长价值可获估值溢价..............................................................................................................................23
（三）行业评级：谨慎推荐.............................................................................................................................................25
（四）利用率回升、电价上调、资产注入是投资催化剂..............................................................................................25
六、主要风险因素...........................................................................................................................................................27
（一）长江电力（600900）:特许经营特征显著的水电航母.........................................................................................28
（二）国投电力（600886）:外延式扩张凸现优异成长性.............................................................................................32
（三）国电电力（600795）:收购与基建并举 价值与成长兼备...................................................................................36
附录...................................................................................................................................................................................40
插图目录...........................................................................................................................................................................45
表格目录...........................................................................................................................................................................46