摘要翻译:
基于可分Hilbert空间的数学理论,我们提出了一种新的决策变体。这种数学结构捕捉到了复合前景的叠加效应,包括许多合并的意图,这使我们能够描述各种有趣的谬误和异常,这些谬误和异常被报道为现实人类决策的特殊性。该理论描述了纠缠决策、后续决策的非交换性和意图干扰。我们证明了在不确定的情况下作出决定时,违反萨维奇的确定原则,即分离效应,是如何被定量地解释为意图干扰的结果的。在实验中观察到的分离效应,利用我们推导出的干扰交替定理准确地预测了,该定理将对不确定性的厌恶与抑制动作概率的负干扰项的出现联系起来。并用干涉项的存在来解释合取谬误。对一系列实验进行了分析,结果与干扰效应的先验估计非常吻合。结合谬误也被证明是析取效应的充分条件,并提出了新的实验来检验这两种效应之间的联合相互作用。
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英文标题:
《Decision Theory with Prospect Interference and Entanglement》
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作者:
V.I. Yukalov and D. Sornette
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最新提交年份:
2011
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分类信息:
一级分类:Physics        物理学
二级分类:Mathematical Physics        数学物理
分类描述:Articles in this category focus on areas of research that illustrate the application of mathematics to problems in physics, develop mathematical methods for such applications, or provide mathematically rigorous formulations of existing physical theories. Submissions to math-ph should be of interest to both physically oriented mathematicians and mathematically oriented physicists; submissions which are primarily of interest to theoretical physicists or to mathematicians should probably be directed to the respective physics/math categories
这一类别的文章集中在说明数学在物理问题中的应用的研究领域,为这类应用开发数学方法,或提供现有物理理论的数学严格公式。提交的数学-PH应该对物理方向的数学家和数学方向的物理学家都感兴趣;主要对理论物理学家或数学家感兴趣的投稿可能应该指向各自的物理/数学类别
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一级分类:Computer Science        计算机科学
二级分类:Artificial Intelligence        
人工智能
分类描述:Covers all areas of AI except Vision, Robotics, Machine Learning, Multiagent Systems, and Computation and Language (Natural Language Processing), which have separate subject areas. In particular, includes Expert Systems, Theorem Proving (although this may overlap with Logic in Computer Science), Knowledge Representation, Planning, and Uncertainty in AI. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.0, I.2.1, I.2.3, I.2.4, I.2.8, and I.2.11.
涵盖了人工智能的所有领域,除了视觉、机器人、机器学习、多智能体系统以及计算和语言(自然语言处理),这些领域有独立的学科领域。特别地,包括专家系统,定理证明(尽管这可能与计算机科学中的逻辑重叠),知识表示,规划,和人工智能中的不确定性。大致包括ACM学科类I.2.0、I.2.1、I.2.3、I.2.4、I.2.8和I.2.11中的材料。
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一级分类:Mathematics        数学
二级分类:Mathematical Physics        数学物理
分类描述:math.MP is an alias for math-ph. Articles in this category focus on areas of research that illustrate the application of mathematics to problems in physics, develop mathematical methods for such applications, or provide mathematically rigorous formulations of existing physical theories. Submissions to math-ph should be of interest to both physically oriented mathematicians and mathematically oriented physicists; submissions which are primarily of interest to theoretical physicists or to mathematicians should probably be directed to the respective physics/math categories
math.mp是math-ph的别名。这一类别的文章集中在说明数学在物理问题中的应用的研究领域,为这类应用开发数学方法,或提供现有物理理论的数学严格公式。提交的数学-PH应该对物理方向的数学家和数学方向的物理学家都感兴趣;主要对理论物理学家或数学家感兴趣的投稿可能应该指向各自的物理/数学类别
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一级分类:Physics        物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
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一级分类:Physics        物理学
二级分类:Quantum Physics        量子物理学
分类描述:Description coming soon
描述即将到来
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英文摘要:
  We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to describe a variety of interesting fallacies and anomalies that have been reported to particularize the decision making of real human beings. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention interference. We demonstrate how the violation of the Savage's sure-thing principle, known as the disjunction effect, can be explained quantitatively as a result of the interference of intentions, when making decisions under uncertainty. The disjunction effects, observed in experiments, are accurately predicted using a theorem on interference alternation that we derive, which connects aversion-to-uncertainty to the appearance of negative interference terms suppressing the probability of actions. The conjunction fallacy is also explained by the presence of the interference terms. A series of experiments are analysed and shown to be in excellent agreement with a priori evaluation of interference effects. The conjunction fallacy is also shown to be a sufficient condition for the disjunction effect and novel experiments testing the combined interplay between the two effects are suggested. 
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.2738