摘要翻译：
我们应该在多大程度上以及何时限制经济和社会活动，以确保卫生保健系统在流行病期间不会不堪重负？我们研究了一种环境，其中ICU的资源受到限制，而抑制是昂贵的（例如，限制经济互动）。我们提供了一个完全分析的解决方案，表明“拉平曲线”的共同智慧是次优的，即在整个疫情期间不断采取抑制措施来控制传播。相反，最佳抑制是不连续的。在第一阶段，疫情应该不受监管，当重症监护室的限制接近时，社会应该迅速锁定（间断）。在封锁规定逐步解除后，保持感染率不变，从而尊重重症监护室的资源，同时不不必要地限制经济活动。在最后阶段，监管被解除。我们称这种策略为“填充盒子”。
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英文标题：
《Optimal epidemic suppression under an ICU constraint》
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作者：
Laurent Miclo, Daniel Spiro and J\"orgen Weibull
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Theoretical Economics        理论经济学
分类描述：Includes theoretical contributions to Contract Theory, Decision Theory, Game Theory, General Equilibrium, Growth, Learning and Evolution, Macroeconomics, Market and Mechanism Design, and Social Choice.
包括对契约理论、决策理论、博弈论、一般均衡、增长、学习与进化、宏观经济学、市场与机制设计、社会选择的理论贡献。
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一级分类：Mathematics        数学
二级分类：Optimization and Control        优化与控制
分类描述：Operations research, linear programming, control theory, systems theory, optimal control, game theory
运筹学，线性规划，控制论，系统论，最优控制，博弈论
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英文摘要：
  How much and when should we limit economic and social activity to ensure that the health-care system is not overwhelmed during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained while suppression is costly (e.g., limiting economic interaction). Providing a fully analytical solution we show that the common wisdom of "flattening the curve", where suppression measures are continuously taken to hold down the spread throughout the epidemic, is suboptimal. Instead, the optimal suppression is discontinuous. The epidemic should be left unregulated in a first phase and when the ICU constraint is approaching society should quickly lock down (a discontinuity). After the lockdown regulation should gradually be lifted, holding the rate of infected constant thus respecting the ICU resources while not unnecessarily limiting economic activity. In a final phase, regulation is lifted. We call this strategy "filling the box".
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.01327