交叉项代表短期因果关系

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误差修正项为正，且大于1，是否正常？谢谢！
Dependent Variable: FAD   
Method: Least Squares   
Date: 08/21/11   Time: 10:58   
Sample (adjusted): 1999 2009   
Included observations: 11 after adjustments   
Failure to improve SSR after 22 iterations   
MA Backcast: 1998   
   
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  
   
FBD -0.390522 0.072361 -5.396857 0.0006
RESID06 1.172804 0.236794 4.952835 0.0011
MA(1) 0.997384 0.114177 8.735408 0.0000
   
R-squared 0.713203     Mean dependent var  0.027380
Adjusted R-squared 0.641503     S.D. dependent var  0.057956